Amid ongoing protests in several Iranian cities, driven primarily by economic and living-cost grievances, the Israeli perspective has emerged as one of the most contentious dimensions in analyzing these developments.
While Hebrew-language media often portrays the Iranian situation in dramatic terms, suggesting the "beginning of the end" for the regime, security and intelligence assessments in Tel Aviv reveal a more cautious interpretation. This official caution contrasts with active, though discreet, efforts to politically and psychologically capitalize on Iran's internal unrest.
Israeli engagement has extended beyond media analysis into official political discourse. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed optimism that the Iranian public may be approaching a "decisive moment," reflecting a longstanding Israeli desire to see its principal regional adversary grapple with profound internal crisis.
However, behind this public rhetoric, discussions within Israeli security circles are less sanguine. According to Israeli security estimates, the current protests differ from previous waves—most notably those in 2022—in their motivations. The present movement is predominantly economic, stemming from rising living costs, and lacks centralized leadership or a unified political program capable of transforming popular anger into an organized movement that threatens the regime's core structure.
Israel does not conceal its concern regarding a parallel scenario: the possibility that Tehran might seek an external escalation to divert attention from its domestic crisis. This anxiety has been clearly reflected within Israel, where rumors of an impending war or a potential Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear or missile facilities have circulated. Consequently, the Iranian issue has dominated Israeli public discourse to an unprecedented degree compared to periods of previous protest.
Despite this, Israeli experts emphasize that the Iranian regime has not yet shown any genuine signs of disintegration. The security and religious institutions remain cohesive, with no indicators of internal fracture or a flight of the ruling elite, as witnessed in the final days of the Shah's rule. In this context, Professor Meir Litvak, head of the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, has noted that media speculation about the potential flight of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is "closer to wishful thinking than to reality."
Notably, Israel's involvement has not remained confined to assessment and analysis. Despite Netanyahu's official instructions to avoid public commentary on events in Iran, the Israeli arena has witnessed leaks and indirect statements—some attributed to the Mossad intelligence agency—alongside notable activity on social media. This includes Farsi-language accounts aimed at amplifying a narrative of collapse and encouraging Iranians to continue protesting.
In summary, Israel's approach to the Iranian protests reveals a clear gap between political desire and on-the-ground reality. While the media and political discourse in Tel Aviv often promote the idea of the regime's imminent fall, the security establishment adheres to a more reserved assessment. This view holds that Iran is undergoing a genuine crisis but remains far from collapse, even as Israel continues its determined efforts to influence the course of events, albeit from behind the scenes.